Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa

Aim Africa is expected to face severe changes in climatic conditions. Our objectives are: (1) to model trends and the extent of future biome shifts that may occur by 2050, (2) to model a trend in tree cover change, while accounting for human impact, and (3) to evaluate uncertainty in future climate projections. Location West Africa. Methods We modelled the potential future spatial distribution of desert, grassland, savanna, deciduous and evergreen forest in West Africa using six bioclimatic models. Future tree cover change was analysed with generalized additive models (GAMs). We used climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) and included human population density and fire intensity to model tree cover. Consensus projections were derived via weighted averages to: (1) reduce inter‐model variability, and (2) describe trends extracted from different GCM projections. Results The strongest predicted effect of climate change was on desert and grasslands, where the bioclimatic envelope of grassland is projected to expand into the desert by an area of 2 million km². While savannas are predicted to contract in the south (by 54 ± 22 × 10⁴ km²), deciduous and evergreen forest biomes are expected to expand (64 ± 13 × 10⁴ km² and 77 ± 26 × 10⁴ km²). However, uncertainty due to different GCMs was particularly high for the grassland and the evergreen biome shift. Increasing tree cover (1–10%) was projected for large parts of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, but a decrease was projected for coastal areas (1–20%). Furthermore, human impact negatively affected tree cover and partly changed the direction of the projected change from increase to decrease. Main conclusions Considering climate change alone, the model results of potential vegetation (biomes) show a ‘greening’ trend by 2050. However, the modelled effects of human impact suggest future forest degradation. Thus, it is essential to consider both climate change and human impact in order to generate realistic future tree cover projections.     

An active balance board system with real-time control of stiffness and time-delay to assess mechanisms of postural stability

Increased time-delay in the neuromuscular system caused by neurological disorders, concussions, or advancing age is an important factor contributing to balance loss (Chagdes et al., 2013, 2016a,b). We present the design and fabrication of an active balance board system that allows for a systematic study of stiffness and time-delay induced instabilities in standing posture. Although current commercial balance boards allow for variable stiffness, they do not allow for manipulation of time-delay. Having two controllable parameters can more accurately determine the cause of balance deficiencies, and allows us to induce instabilities even in healthy populations. An inverted pendulum model of human posture on such an active balance board predicts that reduced board rotational stiffness destabilizes upright posture through board tipping, and limit cycle oscillations about the upright position emerge as feedback time-delay is increased. We validate these two mechanisms of instability on the designed balance board, showing that rotational stiffness and board time-delay induced the predicted postural instabilities in healthy, young adults. Although current commercial balance boards utilize control of rotational stiffness, real-time control of both stiffness and time-delay on an active balance board is a novel and innovative manipulation to reveal balance deficiencies and potentially improve individualized balance training by targeting multiple dimensions contributing to standing balance.     

The colonization of palynomorphs by chytrids and thraustochytrids during pre–depositional taphonomic processes in tropical mangrove ecosystems

Degrees of colonization of palynomorphs from six mangrove plants by chytrids and thraustochytrids in four mangrove plant communities at each stage of the pre–depositional taphonomic process were investigated using a pollen–baiting method. Chytrids and thraustochytrids were the dominant group colonizing palynomorphs in mangroves, gaining access to the cytoplasm through the wall or aperture. There were no significant differences in the degree of colonization between the different plant communities. Pollen with a larger size and/or extensive apertural region appeared to be the most colonized, while the absence of apertures and the presence of a thick wall seemed to reduce the chance of colonization by these microorganisms. Taphonomic experiments showed that the longer palynomorphs take to settle into the mangrove sediments, the lower the possibility of survival from the destructive colonization by chytrids and thraustochytrids and consequently the less carbon that will be sequestered.     

A predictive model for freshwater bioassessment (Mondego River,Portugal)

We sampled macroinvertebrates at 75 locations in the Mondego river catchment, Central Portugal, and developed a predictive model for water quality assessment of this basin, based on the Reference Condition Approach. Sampling was done from June to September 2001. Fifty-five sites were identified as “Reference sites” and 20 sites were used as “Test sites” to test the model. At each site we also measured 40 habitat variables to characterize water physics and chemistry, habitat type, land use, stream hydrology and geographic location. Macroinvertebrates were generally identified to species or genus level; a total of 207 taxa were found. By Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic mean (UPGMA) clustering and analysis of species contribution to similarities percentage (SIMPER), two groups of reference sites were established. Using Discriminant Analysis (stepwise forward), four variables correctly predicted 78% of the reference sites to the appropriate group: stream order, pool quality, substrate quality and current velocity. Test sites’ environmental quality was established from their relative distance to reference sites, in MDS ordination space, using a series of bands (BEAST methodology). The model performed well at upstream sites, but at downstream sites it was compromised by the lack of reference sites. As with the English RIVPACS predictive model, the Mondego model should be continually improved with the addition of new reference sites. The adaptation of the Mondego model methodology to the Water Framework Directive is possible and would consist mainly of the integration of the WFD typology and increasing the number of ellipses that define quality bands. Handling editor: K. Martens     

Evaluating the Feasibility of Eradicating an Invasion

The detectability of invasive organisms influences the costs and benefits of alternative control strategies, and the feasibility of eradicating an infestation. Search theory offers a mathematically rigorous framework for defining and measuring detectability taking account of searcher ability, biological factors and the search environment. In this paper, invasive species detectability is incorporated into a population simulation model. The model is applied to a base set of parameter values that represent reasonable values for a hypothetical weed. The analysis shows the effects of detectability and search effort on the duration of an eradication program. For a given level of detectability and search time, the analysis shows that the variables with the greatest influence on the duration of the eradication effort are search speed, kill efficiency, germination rate and seed longevity. Monte Carlo simulations are performed on a set of four weed scenarios, involving different combinations of plant longevity, seed longevity and plant fecundity. Results of these simulations are presented as probability distributions and allow us to calculate how the probability of eradication will be affected by search strategy.     

The use of breeding sites of Tilapia congica (Thys & van Audenaerde 1960) to delineate conservation sites in the Lake Tumba,Democratic Republic of Congo: toward the conservation of the lake ecosystem

To guide the zoning process in Lake Tumba, Democratic Republic of Congo, breeding sites of Tilapia congica were studied. Physical metrics measured were: nest depths, exposure to sun rays, distance from the edges, site spreads, and habitat types. Mean nest depth = 0.23 m ± 0.08 (SD), range = 0.04–2.2 m (n = 553 nests); 100% (n = 70 sites) sites were exposed to the sun and the polynomial regression analysis showed 90% sites were within the range 51–250 m from the lake shores (y = ?1.7143x² + 10.371x? 1.8; R² = 0.597, n = 70 sites), with 60% clumped within the range of 51–150 m, indicating a relationship between nesting sites and the distance from edges. The largest group spread group was 300 m, and among the four breeding sites identified, one was ～10 km long, meaning a zonal spatial spread ∏ = 300 ha and a core reproduction zone ∏′ = 100 ha. T. congica built 87.30% of their nest in habitats where Hippo grass Vossia cuspidata (48.20%) and Water lily Nympheae stellata (39.10%) dominated. T. congica shared 41.81% of its nesting sites with other fish species, leading to the conclusion that protecting the species habitats would provide the umbrella for the conservation of other species.     

A female head–neck model for rear impact simulations

Several mathematical cervical models of the 50th percentile male have been developed and used for impact biomechanics research. However, for the 50th percentile female no similar modelling efforts have been made, despite females being subject to a higher risk of soft tissue neck injuries. This is a limitation for the development of automotive protective systems addressing Whiplash Associated Disorders (WADs), most commonly caused in rear impacts, as the risk for females sustaining WAD symptoms is double that of males.In this study, a finite element head and neck model of a 50th percentile female was validated in rear impacts. A previously validated ligamentous cervical spine model was complemented with a rigid body head, soft tissues and muscles. In both physiological flexion-extension motions and simulated rear impacts, the kinematic response at segment level was comparable to that of human subjects. Evaluation of ligament stress levels in simulations with varied initial cervical curvature revealed that if an individual assumes a more lordotic posture than the neutral, a higher risk of WAD might occur in rear impact.The female head and neck model, together with a kinematical whole body model which is under development, addresses a need for tools for assessment of automotive protection systems for the group which is at the highest risk to sustain WAD.     

Incorporating species losses and gains into a fish-based index for stream bioassessment increases the detection of anthropogenic disturbances

The taxonomic completeness index (ratio of observed to expected species; O/E) is widely used in stream bioassessment programs to infer ecological impairment. However, its sensitivity to detecting anthropogenic disturbances may be reduced by (1) the modelling procedure used to determine the expected species at a site (2) the inability of the index to account for assemblage shifts through species gains as well as losses; and (3) the frequent use of a threshold that only allows assessment of the absence of prevalent species. We used a version of the BC biotic index (an adaptation of Bray-Curtis distance) that incorporated alien and translocated species into the observed component, and generated expected native species probabilities using single species ensemble models (‘BC_A’). Sensitivity analysis, bivariate correlations and multiple linear regression analyses were used to test whether BC_A better detected anthropogenic disturbances than the standard BC (i.e. without alien and translocated species) and O/E₅₀ derived from the same models. We also tested three additional fish biotic indices currently used in the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Of the indices tested, BC_A explained the greatest amount of variance in anthropogenic disturbance variables, followed by BC and the proportional sample abundance of alien species. The BC_A index was 18% more sensitive to detecting non-reference conditions, 20% more responsive to an anthropogenic disturbance gradient, and had twice the number of significant bivariate correlations with disturbance variables than the O/E₅₀ index derived from the same underlying predictive model. We suggest that the improved performance of BC_A relative to O/E₅₀ lies in its ability to detect the addition of alien, translocated, and some native species whose traits allow them to persist or thrive in degraded conditions, and the inclusion of low prevalence taxa that may be sensitive to mild levels of disturbance. Given that generation of the BC_A index requires no further information than already provided by traditional multivariate predictive models, we recommend its inclusion into bioassessment programs that use multivariate fish based indices.     

Carbon cycle of larch plantation based on CO2FIX model

Aims
Plantations play important roles in modifying regional carbon budget and maintaining regional carbon balance. In this study, we assessed larch plantation (Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii) carbon dynamics in Weichang County from a perspective of the forest biomass-soil-wood-products chain. Our objectives were to elucidate the carbon sink capacity of larch plantation and the influences of biomass, soil and wood product pools on carbon balance.
Methods
CO2FIX model was used to evaluate the carbon storage and flow of larch plantation over a time span of 120 years. Input data for model were derived from practical investigations and published papers. We validated the simulated results and found that this model was suitable in the region and the simulated results were reliable.
Important findings
(1) Soil was the largest carbon pool for larch plantation and the wood product pool had the smallest carbon storage. Meanwhile, carbon storage in wood products gradually increased with time. (2) In a rotation of 50 years from secondary poplar-birch forest to larch plantation, 250 t C·hm^-2 was sequestrated by the larch plantation. 70% of the carbon was transferred into soil in the form of litter and logging slash and the other 30% was transferred into wood products. (3) Larch plantation was a carbon sink during most of its growing period and turned to temporary carbon source when it was harvested. Larch plantation could sequestrate about 0.3 t C·hm^-2·a^-1 in the long term. Our results indicated the importance of wood product carbon pool in carbon dynamics of plantation, which facilitated our understanding in the carbon dynamics and capacity of plantation.